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Continuaremos crescendo como uma economia primária exportadora?

é fundamental que o país estimule os setores da indústria que fabricam manufaturados e produtos intensivos em tecnologia, para não se tornar excessivamente dependente da exportação de commodities

Holland, ressaltando, contudo, que a perda de espaço da indústria de transformação na economia não se deve apenas ao real forte - problemas de educação, do baixo investimento em pesquisa e desenvolvimento e a deficiência da infraestrutura também atrapalham.

Mineiro, formado pela Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Holland tem mestrado pela Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), doutorado pela Unicamp e pós-doutorado pela Universidade da Califórnia, em Berkeley, nos EUA.

Não podemos perpetuar essa discussão centrada em Copom, metas de inflação e taxas de juros. 

Precisamos discutir se queremos continuar crescendo como uma economia primária exportadora

Se você estudar os países mais e menos vulneráveis a choques internacionais, verá que os menos sujeitos a eles têm menor concentração de exportações. As exportações de commodities são importantes e muito bem vindas, mas os preços são mais voláteis que os preços de manufaturados.

Eu prefiro não falar em ajuste fiscal, mas sim na questão da qualidade dos gastos. É importante avançar nesse sentido, de avaliar a qualidade da gestão pública.

A participação da indústria de transformação no valor adicionado está em queda no Brasil. Ao mesmo tempo, com o desenvolvimento e a urbanização, é natural o aumento da participação do setor de serviços.

A concertação da política econômica é um grande desafio. É um passo a mais importante que precisa ser dado. É fundamental um maior diálogo entre os gestores da política fiscal e da política monetária.

Eu sou um desenvolvimentista fiscalista, se é que isso existe A economia tem ser tratada sem princípios previamente estabelecidos. Eu digo que sou desenvolvimentista porque não consigo imaginar deixar o Brasil crescer menos que 5% ao ano. Temos que ter criatividade para conseguir isso.

Morning Ritual

• Scrape Your Tongue
• Dry Brush Your Body
• Meditate for a Few Minutes
• Smile at Yourself in the Mirror for 30 Seconds
• Write Out Your Top 3 for the Day

Personality Disorder Test Results Paranoid |||||||||||| 43% Schizoid |||||||||||||| 52% Schizotypal |||||||||||||||||| 74% Antisocial |||||||||||||||| 68% Borderline |||||||||||| 48% Histrionic |||||||||| 31% Narcissistic |||||||||||| 46% Avoidant |||||||||||| 44% Dependent |||||||||| 39% Obsessive-Compulsive |||||||||| 39%

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We are trapped in a cycle of credit booms by Martin Wolf

- Bancos centrais têm feito barganhas faustianas com o boom de crédito direcionado ao setor privado.
- O boom de crédito decorre de políticas para sustentar a demanda conforme as bolhas anteriores colapsavam.
- Gerenciar a situação pós-crise requer reconhecimento imediato das perdas, recapitalização do setor bancário e políticas fiscais e monetárias contracíclicas para sustentar o crescimento. A economia americana foi a que melhor conseguiu gerenciar.
- Ademais, as políticas Macroprudenciais são de extrema importância embora sua efetividade possa ser questionável.
- Risco de uma combinação venenosa entre progressivo endividamento e desaceleração do crescimento.
- O endividamento público cresceu rapidamente por causa da crise (conforme demonstrado no This Time is Different Rogoff e Reinhart)
- 3 x tipos de Ciclos de créditos:
- 1. Como o sueco no início dos anos 1990, o produto caiu.
- 2. Japão desde os anos 1990 não houve queda absoluta, mas o crescimento potencial caiu muito abaixo do nível pré-crises.
- 3. A crise de agora tanto na Zona do Euro como nos EUA em que houve queda tanto no produto real como no crescimento potencial.
- Europa presa na estagnação enquanto China luta com a dívida contraída para manter o ritmo de crescimento.
- A economia mundial depende de bolhas de crédito em algum lugar para gerar crescimento.
1.Bolha de crédito no Japão de 1990,
2.Bolha de crédito na Ásia em 1997,
3.Bolha de crédito nas economias do Norte Atlântico em 2007.
- Não houve desalavancagem desde 2008.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a9f058e-4d43-11e4-bf60-00144feab7de.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fcomment_columnists_martin-wolf%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct&siteedition=intl

Flow

And the man who talked at that evening lecture was very interesting. Instead of talking about little green men, he talked about how the psyche of the Europeans had been traumatized by the war, and now they're projecting flying saucers into the sky. He talked about how the mandalas of ancient Hindu religion were kind of projected into the sky as an attempt to regain some sense of order after the chaos of war.

But you find essentially the same results, namely, that after a certain basic point -- which corresponds more or less to just a few 1,000 dollars above the minimum poverty level -- increases in material well-being don't seem to affect how happy people are. In fact, you can find that the lack of basic resources, material resources, contributes to unhappiness, but the increase in material resources does not increase happiness

So ecstasy is essentially a stepping into an alternative reality. And it's interesting, if you think about it, how, when we think about the civilizations that we look up to as having been pinnacles of human achievement -- whether it's China, Greece, the Hindu civilization, or the Mayas, or Egyptians -- what we know about them is really about their ecstasies, not about their everyday life. We know the temples they built, where people could come to experience a different reality.

completely engaging process of creating something new, as this man is, he doesn't have enough attention left over to monitor how his body feels, or his problems at home so many of the people described this as a spontaneous flow that I called this type of experience the "flow experience." And it happens in different realms.

The same essential description of the phenomenology of the inner state of the person. You don't think; it goes automatically, if you merge yourself with the music, and so forth.

This is an interesting little quote from Masaru Ibuka, who was at that time starting out Sony without any money, without a product -- they didn't have a product, they didn't have anything, but they had an idea. And the idea he had was to establish a place of work where engineers can feel the joy of technological innovation, be aware of their mission to society and work to their heart's content. I couldn't improve on this as a good example of how flow enters the workplace.

David Harvey on Thomas Piketty's Capital

• Piketty proposals as to the remedies for the inequalities are naïve if not utopian. And he has certainly not produced a working model for capital of the twenty-first century. For that we still need Marx or his modern-day equivalent. He advocates progressive taxation and a global wealth tax as the only way to counter the trend towards the creation of a “patrimonial” form of capitalism marked by what he dubs “terrifying” inequalities of wealth and income. • He derives a mathematical law disguises more than it reveals about the class politics involved • If the rate of return on the capital that is being used is high then this is because a part of capital is withdrawn from circulation and in effect goes on strike. Money, land, real estate and plant and equipment that are not being used productively are not capital. Restricting the supply of capital to new investment (a phenomena we are now witnessing) ensures a high rate of return on that capital which is in circulation. The creation of such artificial scarcity is not only what the oil companies do to ensure their high rate of return: it is what all capital does when given the chance. • A central difficulty with Piketty’s argument mistaken definition of capital. Capital is a process not a thing. The whole of neo-classical economic thought (which is the basis of Piketty’s thinking) is founded on a tautology. The rate of return on capital depends crucially on the rate of growth because capital is valued by way of that which it produces and not by what went into its production. • As Alan Budd, an economic advisor to Margaret Thatcher confessed in an unguarded moment, anti-inflation policies of the 1980s turned out to be “a very good way to raise unemployment, and raising unemployment was an extremely desirable way of reducing the strength of the working classes…what was engineered there in Marxist terms was a crisis of capitalism which recreated a reserve army of labour and has allowed capitalists to make high profits ever since.” • He demolishes the widely-held view that free market capitalism spreads the wealth around and that it is the great bulwark for the defense of individual liberties and freedoms. Free-market capitalism, in the absence of any major redistributive interventions on the part of the state, Piketty shows, produces anti-democratic oligarchies. But he does not help us understand why growth is currently so sluggish in the US as opposed to China and why Europe is locked down in a politics of austerity and an economy of stagnation. • What Piketty does show statistically (and we should be indebted to him and his colleagues for this) is that capital has tended throughout its history to produce ever-greater levels of inequality. http://davidharvey.org/2014/05/afterthoughts-pikettys-capital/